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@ -9,32 +9,35 @@
<style type="text/css"> <style type="text/css">
body { body {
background: black; background: black;
overflow: hidden;
font-family: mono;
} }
#vBush { #vBush {
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top: 100px;
left: 100px;
width: 1500px;
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text-align: center; text-align: center;
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margin-left: -6555px; font-size: 15px;
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font-size: 11px; /* text-decoration: blanchedalmond;
word-spacing: 670px;
text-decoration: blanchedalmond;
text-decoration-style: solid; text-decoration-style: solid;
text-decoration-style: dotted; text-decoration-style: dotted;
text-shadow: 10px 10px red; text-shadow: 10px 10px red;*/
margin-top: -50px; transition-duration: 5s;
top: 10px; transition-property: letter-spacing, line-height, font-size, word-spacing;
position: absolute; transition-timing-function: ease-in-out;
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</style> </style>
@ -44,9 +47,9 @@
AS WE MAY THINK AS WE MAY THINK
by VANNEVAR BUSH by VANNEVAR BUSH
THE ATLANTIC MONTHLY, JULY 1945 THE ATLANTIC MONTHLY, JULY 1945 <br><br>
---------------------------------------------------------------------- ---------------------------------------------------------------------- <br><br>
As Director of the Office of Scientific Research and Development, Dr. As Director of the Office of Scientific Research and Development, Dr.
Vannevar Bush has coordinated the activities of some six thousand Vannevar Bush has coordinated the activities of some six thousand
@ -65,22 +68,24 @@ these pacific instruments should be the first objective of our
scientists as they emerge from their war work. Like Emerson's famous scientists as they emerge from their war work. Like Emerson's famous
address of 1837 on ``The American Scholar,'' this paper by Dr. Bush address of 1837 on ``The American Scholar,'' this paper by Dr. Bush
calls for a new relationship between thinking man and the sum of our calls for a new relationship between thinking man and the sum of our
knowledge. - The Editor knowledge. - The Editor <br><br>
----------------------------------------------------------------------<br><br>
----------------------------------------------------------------------
This has not been a scientist's war; it has been a war in which all This has not been a scientist's war; it has been a war in which all
have had a part. The scientists, burying their old professional have had a part. The scientists, burying their old professional
competition in the demand of a common cause, have shared greatly and competition in the demand of a common cause, have shared greatly and
learned much. It has been exhilarating to work in effective learned much. It has been exhilarating to work in effective
partnership. Now, for many, this appears to be approaching an end. partnership. Now, for many, this appears to be approaching an end.
What are the scientists to do next? What are the scientists to do next?<br><br>
For the biologists, and particularly for the medical scientists, there For the biologists, and particularly for the medical scientists, there
can be little indecision, for their war work has hardly required them can be little indecision, for their war work has hardly required them
to leave the old paths. Many indeed have been able to carry on their to leave the old paths. Many indeed have been able to carry on their
war research in their familiar peacetime laboratories. Their war research in their familiar peacetime laboratories. Their
objectives remain much the same. objectives remain much the same.<br><br>
It is the physicists who have been thrown most violently off stride, It is the physicists who have been thrown most violently off stride,
who have left academic pursuits for the making of strange destructive who have left academic pursuits for the making of strange destructive
@ -90,9 +95,9 @@ possible to turn back the enemy. They have worked in combined effort
with the physicists of our allies. They have felt within themselves with the physicists of our allies. They have felt within themselves
the stir of achievement. They have been part of a great team. Now, the stir of achievement. They have been part of a great team. Now,
as peace approaches, one asks where they will find objectives worthy as peace approaches, one asks where they will find objectives worthy
of their best. of their best.<br><br>
1 1<br><br>
Of what lasting benefit has been man's use of science and of the new Of what lasting benefit has been man's use of science and of the new
instruments which his research brought into existence? First, they instruments which his research brought into existence? First, they
@ -103,13 +108,15 @@ They have given him increased knowledge of his own biological
processes so that he has had a progressive freedom from disease and an processes so that he has had a progressive freedom from disease and an
increased span of life. They are illuminating the interactions of his increased span of life. They are illuminating the interactions of his
physiological and psychological functions, giving the promise of an physiological and psychological functions, giving the promise of an
improved mental health. improved mental health.<br><br>
Science has provided the swiftest communication between individuals; Science has provided the swiftest communication between individuals;
it has provided a record of ideas and has enabled man to manipulate it has provided a record of ideas and has enabled man to manipulate
and to make extracts from that record so that knowledge evolves and and to make extracts from that record so that knowledge evolves and
endures throughout the life of a race rather than that of an endures throughout the life of a race rather than that of an
individual. individual.<br><br>
There is a growing mountain of research. But there is increased There is a growing mountain of research. But there is increased
evidence that we are being bogged down today as specialization evidence that we are being bogged down today as specialization
@ -117,13 +124,13 @@ extends. The investigator is staggered by the findings and
conclusions of thousands of other workers - conclusions which he conclusions of thousands of other workers - conclusions which he
cannot find time to grasp, much less to remember, as they appear. Yet cannot find time to grasp, much less to remember, as they appear. Yet
specialization becomes increasingly necessary for progress, and the specialization becomes increasingly necessary for progress, and the
effort to bridge between disciplines is correspondingly superficial. effort to bridge between disciplines is correspondingly superficial.<br><br>
Professionally our methods of transmitting and reviewing the results Professionally our methods of transmitting and reviewing the results
of research are generations old and by now are totally inadequate for of research are generations old and by now are totally inadequate for
their purpose. If the aggregate time spent in writing scholarly works their purpose. If the aggregate time spent in writing scholarly works
and in reading them could be evaluated, the ratio between these and in reading them could be evaluated, the ratio between these
amounts of time might well be startling. Those who conscientiously amounts of time might well be startling. Those who conscientiously
attempt to keep abreast of current thought, even in restricted fields, attempt to keep abreast of current thought, even in restricted fields,
by close and continuous reading might well shy away from an by close and continuous reading might well shy away from an
examination calculated to show how much of the previous month's examination calculated to show how much of the previous month's
@ -132,7 +139,7 @@ genetics was lost to the world for a generation because his
publication did not reach the few who were capable of grasping and publication did not reach the few who were capable of grasping and
extending it; and this sort of catastrophe is undoubtedly being extending it; and this sort of catastrophe is undoubtedly being
repeated all about us, as truly significant attainments become lost in repeated all about us, as truly significant attainments become lost in
the mass of the inconsequential. the mass of the inconsequential.<br><br>
The difficulty seems to be, not so much that we publish unduly in view The difficulty seems to be, not so much that we publish unduly in view
of the extent and variety of present-day interests, but rather that of the extent and variety of present-day interests, but rather that
@ -140,7 +147,7 @@ publication has been extended far beyond our present ability to make
real use of the record. The summation of human experience is being real use of the record. The summation of human experience is being
expanded at a prodigious rate, and the means we use for threading expanded at a prodigious rate, and the means we use for threading
through the consequent maze to the momentarily important item is the through the consequent maze to the momentarily important item is the
same as was used in the days of square-rigged ships. same as was used in the days of square-rigged ships.<br><br>
But there are signs of a change as new and powerful instrumentalities But there are signs of a change as new and powerful instrumentalities
come into use. Photocells capable of seeing things in a physical come into use. Photocells capable of seeing things in a physical
@ -152,7 +159,7 @@ comparison a microsecond is a long time, relay combinations which will
carry out involved sequences of movements more reliably than any human carry out involved sequences of movements more reliably than any human
operator and thousand of times as fast - there are plenty of operator and thousand of times as fast - there are plenty of
mechanical aids with which to effect a transformation in scientific mechanical aids with which to effect a transformation in scientific
records. records.<br><br>
Two centuries ago Leibnitz invented a calculating machine which Two centuries ago Leibnitz invented a calculating machine which
embodied most of the essential features of recent keyboard devices, embodied most of the essential features of recent keyboard devices,
@ -162,7 +169,7 @@ days of mass production, exceeded the labor to be saved by its use,
since all it could accomplish could be duplicated by sufficient use of since all it could accomplish could be duplicated by sufficient use of
pencil and paper. Moreover, it would have been subject to frequent pencil and paper. Moreover, it would have been subject to frequent
breakdown, so that it could not have been depended upon; for at that breakdown, so that it could not have been depended upon; for at that
time and long after, complexity and unreliability were synonymous. time and long after, complexity and unreliability were synonymous.<br><br>
Babbage, even with remarkably generous support for his time, could not Babbage, even with remarkably generous support for his time, could not
produce his great arithmetical machine. His idea was sound enough, produce his great arithmetical machine. His idea was sound enough,
@ -170,7 +177,7 @@ but construction and maintenance costs were then too heavy. Had a
Pharaoh been given detailed and explicit designs of an automobile, and Pharaoh been given detailed and explicit designs of an automobile, and
had he understood them completely, it would have taxed the resources had he understood them completely, it would have taxed the resources
of his kingdom to have fashioned the thousands of parts for a single of his kingdom to have fashioned the thousands of parts for a single
car, and that car would have broken down on the first trip to Giza. car, and that car would have broken down on the first trip to Giza.<br><br>
Machines with interchangeable parts can now be constructed with great Machines with interchangeable parts can now be constructed with great
economy of effort. In spite of much complexity, they perform reliably. economy of effort. In spite of much complexity, they perform reliably.
@ -185,9 +192,9 @@ gossamer parts, the precise location and alignment involved in its
construction, would have occupied a master craftsman of the guild for construction, would have occupied a master craftsman of the guild for
months; now it is built for thirty cents. The world has arrived at an months; now it is built for thirty cents. The world has arrived at an
age of cheap complex devices of great reliability; and something is age of cheap complex devices of great reliability; and something is
bound to come of it. bound to come of it.<br><br>
2 2<br><br>
A record, if it is to be useful to science, must be continuously A record, if it is to be useful to science, must be continuously
extended, it must be stored, and above all it must be consulted. extended, it must be stored, and above all it must be consulted.
@ -195,7 +202,7 @@ Today we make the record conventionally by writing and photography,
followed by printing; but we also record on film, on wax disks, and on followed by printing; but we also record on film, on wax disks, and on
magnetic wires. Even if utterly new recording procedures do not magnetic wires. Even if utterly new recording procedures do not
appear, these present ones are certainly in the process of appear, these present ones are certainly in the process of
modification and extension. modification and extension.<br><br>
Certainly progress in photography is not going to stop. Faster Certainly progress in photography is not going to stop. Faster
material and lenses, more automatic cameras, finer-grained sensitive material and lenses, more automatic cameras, finer-grained sensitive
@ -214,7 +221,7 @@ operating its shutter and shifting its film is wound once for all when
the film clip is inserted. It produces its result in full color. It the film clip is inserted. It produces its result in full color. It
may well be stereoscopic, and record with spaced glass eyes, for may well be stereoscopic, and record with spaced glass eyes, for
striking improvements in stereoscopic technique are just around the striking improvements in stereoscopic technique are just around the
corner. corner.<br><br>
The cord which trips its shutter may reach down a man's sleeve within The cord which trips its shutter may reach down a man's sleeve within
easy reach of his fingers. A quick squeeze, and the picture is taken. easy reach of his fingers. A quick squeeze, and the picture is taken.
@ -225,7 +232,7 @@ scientist of the future moves about the laboratory or the field, every
time he looks at something worthy of the record, he trips the shutter time he looks at something worthy of the record, he trips the shutter
and in it goes, without even an audible click. Is this all fantastic? and in it goes, without even an audible click. Is this all fantastic?
The only fantastic thing about it is the idea of making as many The only fantastic thing about it is the idea of making as many
pictures as would result from its use. pictures as would result from its use.<br><br>
Will there be dry photography? It is already here in two forms. When Will there be dry photography? It is already here in two forms. When
Brady made his Civil War pictures, the plate had to be wet at the time Brady made his Civil War pictures, the plate had to be wet at the time
@ -238,7 +245,7 @@ and the picture can then be taken out into the light and examined.
The process is now slow, but someone may speed it up, and it has no The process is now slow, but someone may speed it up, and it has no
grain difficulties such as now keep photographic researchers busy. grain difficulties such as now keep photographic researchers busy.
Often it would be advantageous to be able to snap the camera and to Often it would be advantageous to be able to snap the camera and to
look at the picture immediately. look at the picture immediately.<br><br>
Another process now in use is also slow, and more or less clumsy. For Another process now in use is also slow, and more or less clumsy. For
fifty years impregnated papers have been used which turn dark at every fifty years impregnated papers have been used which turn dark at every
@ -247,7 +254,7 @@ chemical change thus produced in an iodine compound included in the
paper. They have been used to make records, for a pointer moving paper. They have been used to make records, for a pointer moving
across them can leave a trail behind. If the electrical potential on across them can leave a trail behind. If the electrical potential on
the pointer is varied as it moves, the line becomes light or dark in the pointer is varied as it moves, the line becomes light or dark in
accordance with the potential. accordance with the potential.<br><br>
This scheme is now used in facsimile transmission. The pointer draws This scheme is now used in facsimile transmission. The pointer draws
a set of closely spaced lines across the paper one after another. As a set of closely spaced lines across the paper one after another. As
@ -257,7 +264,7 @@ produced by a photocell which is similarly scanning a picture. At
every instant the darkness of the line being drawn is made equal to every instant the darkness of the line being drawn is made equal to
the darkness of the point on the picture being observed by the the darkness of the point on the picture being observed by the
photocell. Thus, when the whole picture has been covered, a replica photocell. Thus, when the whole picture has been covered, a replica
appears at the receiving end. appears at the receiving end.<br><br>
A scene itself can be just as well looked over line by line by the A scene itself can be just as well looked over line by line by the
photocell in this way as can a photograph of the scene. This whole photocell in this way as can a photograph of the scene. This whole
@ -265,7 +272,7 @@ apparatus constitutes a camera, with the added feature, which can be
dispensed with if desired, of making its picture at a distance. It is dispensed with if desired, of making its picture at a distance. It is
slow, and the picture is poor in detail. Still, it does give another slow, and the picture is poor in detail. Still, it does give another
process of dry photography, in which the picture is finished as soon process of dry photography, in which the picture is finished as soon
as it is taken. as it is taken.<br><br>
It would be a brave man who could predict that such a process will It would be a brave man who could predict that such a process will
always remain clumsy, slow, and faulty in detail. Television always remain clumsy, slow, and faulty in detail. Television
@ -277,7 +284,7 @@ sweep across the picture very rapidly indeed. The other difference
involves merely the use of a screen which glows momentarily when the involves merely the use of a screen which glows momentarily when the
electrons hit, rather than a chemically treated paper or film which is electrons hit, rather than a chemically treated paper or film which is
permanently altered. This speed is necessary in television, for permanently altered. This speed is necessary in television, for
motion pictures rather than stills are the object. motion pictures rather than stills are the object.<br><br>
Use chemically treated film in place of the glowing screen, allow the Use chemically treated film in place of the glowing screen, allow the
apparatus to transmit one picture rather than a succession, and a apparatus to transmit one picture rather than a succession, and a
@ -291,7 +298,7 @@ partition, and by pressing the film against the other side, if this
partition were such as to allow the electrons to go through partition were such as to allow the electrons to go through
perpendicular to its surface, and to prevent them from spreading out perpendicular to its surface, and to prevent them from spreading out
sideways. Such partitions, in crude form, could certainly be sideways. Such partitions, in crude form, could certainly be
constructed, and they will hardly hold up the general development. constructed, and they will hardly hold up the general development.<br><br>
Like dry photography, microphotography still has a long way to go. Like dry photography, microphotography still has a long way to go.
The basic scheme of reducing the size of the record, and examining it The basic scheme of reducing the size of the record, and examining it
@ -303,7 +310,7 @@ microfilm, reductions by a linear factor of 20 can be employed and
still produce full clarity when the material is re-enlarged for still produce full clarity when the material is re-enlarged for
examination. The limits are set by the graininess of the film, the examination. The limits are set by the graininess of the film, the
excellence of the optical system, and the efficiency of the light excellence of the optical system, and the efficiency of the light
sources employed. All of these are rapidly improving. sources employed. All of these are rapidly improving.<br><br>
Assume a linear ratio of 100 for future use. Consider film of the Assume a linear ratio of 100 for future use. Consider film of the
same thickness as paper, although thinner film will certainly be same thickness as paper, although thinner film will certainly be
@ -319,7 +326,7 @@ whole affair, assembled and compressed, could be lugged off in a
moving van. Mere compression, of course, is not enough; one needs not moving van. Mere compression, of course, is not enough; one needs not
only to make and store a record but also to be able to consult it, and only to make and store a record but also to be able to consult it, and
this aspect of the matter comes later. Even the modern great library this aspect of the matter comes later. Even the modern great library
is not generally consulted; it is nibbled by a few. is not generally consulted; it is nibbled by a few.<br><br>
Compression is important, however, when it comes to costs. The Compression is important, however, when it comes to costs. The
material for the microfilm Britannica would cost a nickel, and it material for the microfilm Britannica would cost a nickel, and it
@ -331,7 +338,7 @@ one-half by eleven inches. Once it is available, with the
photographic reproduction methods of the future, duplicates in large photographic reproduction methods of the future, duplicates in large
quantities could probably be turned out for a cent apiece beyond the quantities could probably be turned out for a cent apiece beyond the
cost of materials. The preparation of the original copy? That cost of materials. The preparation of the original copy? That
introduces the next aspect of the subject. introduces the next aspect of the subject.<br><br>
3 3
@ -343,7 +350,7 @@ future cease writing by hand or typewriter and talk directly to the
record? He does so indirectly, by talking to a stenographer or a wax record? He does so indirectly, by talking to a stenographer or a wax
cylinder; but the elements are all present if he wishes to have his cylinder; but the elements are all present if he wishes to have his
talk directly produce a typed record. All he needs to do is to take talk directly produce a typed record. All he needs to do is to take
advantage of existing mechanisms and to alter his language. advantage of existing mechanisms and to alter his language.<br><br>
At a recent World Fair a machine called a Voder was shown. A girl At a recent World Fair a machine called a Voder was shown. A girl
stroked its keys and it emitted recognizable speech. No human vocal stroked its keys and it emitted recognizable speech. No human vocal
@ -352,7 +359,7 @@ some electrically produced vibrations and passed these on to a
loud-speaker. In the Bell Laboratories there is the converse of this loud-speaker. In the Bell Laboratories there is the converse of this
machine, called a Vocoder. The loudspeaker is replaced by a machine, called a Vocoder. The loudspeaker is replaced by a
microphone, which picks up sound. Speak to it, and the corresponding microphone, which picks up sound. Speak to it, and the corresponding
keys move. This may be one element of the postulated system. keys move. This may be one element of the postulated system.<br><br>
The other element is found in the stenotype, that somewhat The other element is found in the stenotype, that somewhat
disconcerting device encountered usually at public meetings. A girl disconcerting device encountered usually at public meetings. A girl
@ -363,7 +370,7 @@ the speaker is supposed to have said. Later this strip is retyped
into ordinary language, for in its nascent form it is intelligible into ordinary language, for in its nascent form it is intelligible
only to the initiated. Combine these two elements, let the Vocoder only to the initiated. Combine these two elements, let the Vocoder
run the stenotype, and the result is a machine which types when talked run the stenotype, and the result is a machine which types when talked
to. to.<br><br>
Our present languages are not especially adapted to this sort of Our present languages are not especially adapted to this sort of
mechanization, it is true. It is strange that the inventors of mechanization, it is true. It is strange that the inventors of
@ -371,7 +378,7 @@ universal languages have not seized upon the idea of producing one
which better fitted the technique for transmitting and recording which better fitted the technique for transmitting and recording
speech. Mechanization may yet force the issue, especially in the speech. Mechanization may yet force the issue, especially in the
scientific field; whereupon scientific jargon would become still less scientific field; whereupon scientific jargon would become still less
intelligible to the layman. intelligible to the layman.<br><br>
One can now picture a future investigator in his laboratory. His One can now picture a future investigator in his laboratory. His
hands are free, and he is not anchored. As he moves about and hands are free, and he is not anchored. As he moves about and
@ -380,7 +387,7 @@ to tie the two records together. If he goes into the field, he may be
connected by radio to his recorder. As he ponders over his notes in connected by radio to his recorder. As he ponders over his notes in
the evening, he again talks his comments into the record. His typed the evening, he again talks his comments into the record. His typed
record, as well as his photographs, may both be in miniature, so that record, as well as his photographs, may both be in miniature, so that
he projects them for examination. he projects them for examination.<br><br>
Much needs to occur, however, between the collection of data and Much needs to occur, however, between the collection of data and
observations, the extraction of parallel material from the existing observations, the extraction of parallel material from the existing
@ -388,7 +395,7 @@ record, and the final insertion of new material into the general body
of the common record. For mature thought there is no mechanical of the common record. For mature thought there is no mechanical
substitute. But creative thought and essentially repetitive thought substitute. But creative thought and essentially repetitive thought
are very different things. For the latter there are, and may be, are very different things. For the latter there are, and may be,
powerful mechanical aids. powerful mechanical aids.<br><br>
Adding a column of figures is a repetitive thought process, and it was Adding a column of figures is a repetitive thought process, and it was
long ago properly relegated to the machine. True, the machine is long ago properly relegated to the machine. True, the machine is
@ -399,7 +406,7 @@ by photocells and then depress the corresponding keys; these are
combinations of photocells for scanning the type, electric circuits combinations of photocells for scanning the type, electric circuits
for sorting the consequent variations, and relay circuits for for sorting the consequent variations, and relay circuits for
interpreting the result into the action of solenoids to pull the keys interpreting the result into the action of solenoids to pull the keys
down. down.<br><br>
All this complication is needed because of the clumsy way in which we All this complication is needed because of the clumsy way in which we
have learned to write figures. If we recorded them positionally, have learned to write figures. If we recorded them positionally,
@ -408,7 +415,7 @@ reading mechanism would become comparatively simple. In fact, if the
dots are holes, we have the punched-card machine long ago produced by dots are holes, we have the punched-card machine long ago produced by
Hollorith for the purposes of the census, and now used throughout Hollorith for the purposes of the census, and now used throughout
business. Some types of complex businesses could hardly operate business. Some types of complex businesses could hardly operate
without these machines. without these machines.<br><br>
Adding is only one operation. To perform arithmetical computation Adding is only one operation. To perform arithmetical computation
involves also subtraction, multiplication, and division, and in involves also subtraction, multiplication, and division, and in
@ -421,14 +428,14 @@ sequence of operations is concerned; and punched-card machines in
which separate operations are usually delegated to a series of which separate operations are usually delegated to a series of
machines, and the cards then transferred bodily from one to another. machines, and the cards then transferred bodily from one to another.
Both forms are very useful; but as far as complex computations are Both forms are very useful; but as far as complex computations are
concerned, both are still embryo. concerned, both are still embryo.<br><br>
Rapid electrical counting appeared soon after the physicists found it Rapid electrical counting appeared soon after the physicists found it
desirable to count cosmic rays. For their own purposes the physicists desirable to count cosmic rays. For their own purposes the physicists
promptly constructed thermionic-tube equipment capable of counting promptly constructed thermionic-tube equipment capable of counting
electrical impulses at the rate of 100,000 a second. The advanced electrical impulses at the rate of 100,000 a second. The advanced
arithmetical machines of the future will be electrical in nature, and arithmetical machines of the future will be electrical in nature, and
they will perform at 100 times present speeds, or more. they will perform at 100 times present speeds, or more.<br><br>
Moreover, they will be far more versatile than present commercial Moreover, they will be far more versatile than present commercial
machines, so that they may readily be adapted for a wide variety of machines, so that they may readily be adapted for a wide variety of
@ -442,9 +449,9 @@ One of them will take instructions and data from a roomful of girls
armed with simple keyboard punches, and will deliver sheets of armed with simple keyboard punches, and will deliver sheets of
computed results every few minutes. There will always be plenty of computed results every few minutes. There will always be plenty of
things to compute in the detailed affairs of millions of people doing things to compute in the detailed affairs of millions of people doing
complicated things. complicated things.<br><br>
4 4<br><br>
The repetitive processes of thought are not confined, however, to The repetitive processes of thought are not confined, however, to
matters of arithmetic and statistics. In fact, every time one matters of arithmetic and statistics. In fact, every time one
@ -457,7 +464,7 @@ these lines, beyond the bounds of arithmetic, as might be done,
primarily because of the economics of the situation. The needs of primarily because of the economics of the situation. The needs of
business, and the extensive market obviously waiting, assured the business, and the extensive market obviously waiting, assured the
advent of mass-produced arithmetical machines just as soon as advent of mass-produced arithmetical machines just as soon as
production methods were sufficiently advanced. production methods were sufficiently advanced.<br><br>
With machines for advanced analysis no such situation existed; for With machines for advanced analysis no such situation existed; for
there was and is no extensive market; the users of advanced methods of there was and is no extensive market; the users of advanced methods of
@ -466,7 +473,7 @@ however, machines for solving differential equations - and functional
and integral equations, for that matter. There are many special and integral equations, for that matter. There are many special
machines, such as the harmonic synthesizer which predicts the tides. machines, such as the harmonic synthesizer which predicts the tides.
There will be many more, appearing certainly first in the hands of the There will be many more, appearing certainly first in the hands of the
scientist and in small numbers. scientist and in small numbers.<br><br>
If scientific reasoning were limited to the logical processes of If scientific reasoning were limited to the logical processes of
arithmetic, we should not get far in our understanding of the physical arithmetic, we should not get far in our understanding of the physical
@ -474,7 +481,7 @@ world. One might as well attempt to grasp the game of poker entirely
by the use of the mathematics of probability. The abacus, with its by the use of the mathematics of probability. The abacus, with its
beads strung on parallel wires, led the Arabs to positional numeration beads strung on parallel wires, led the Arabs to positional numeration
and the concept of zero many centuries before the rest of the world; and the concept of zero many centuries before the rest of the world;
and it was a useful tool - so useful that it still exists. and it was a useful tool - so useful that it still exists.<br><br>
It is a far cry from the abacus to the modern keyboard accounting It is a far cry from the abacus to the modern keyboard accounting
machine. It will be an equal step to the arithmetical machine of the machine. It will be an equal step to the arithmetical machine of the
@ -488,7 +495,7 @@ is not even a man who can readily perform the transformation of
equations by the use of calculus. He is primarily an individual who equations by the use of calculus. He is primarily an individual who
is skilled in the use of symbolic logic on a high plane, and is skilled in the use of symbolic logic on a high plane, and
especially he is a man of intuitive judgment in the choice of the especially he is a man of intuitive judgment in the choice of the
manipulative processes he employs. manipulative processes he employs.<br><br>
All else he should be able to turn over to his mechanism, just as All else he should be able to turn over to his mechanism, just as
confidently as he turns over the propelling of his car to the confidently as he turns over the propelling of his car to the
@ -498,9 +505,9 @@ to the useful solution of the advanced problems of chemistry,
metallurgy, and biology. For this reason there will come more metallurgy, and biology. For this reason there will come more
machines to handle advanced mathematics for the scientist. Some of machines to handle advanced mathematics for the scientist. Some of
them will be sufficiently bizarre to suit the most fastidious them will be sufficiently bizarre to suit the most fastidious
connoisseur of the present artifacts of civilization. connoisseur of the present artifacts of civilization.<br><br>
5 5<br><br>
The scientist, however, is not the only person who manipulates data The scientist, however, is not the only person who manipulates data
and examines the world about him by the use of logical processes, and examines the world about him by the use of logical processes,
@ -516,7 +523,7 @@ logic, simply by the clever use of relay circuits. Put a set of
premises into such a device and turn the crank, and it will readily premises into such a device and turn the crank, and it will readily
pass out conclusion after conclusion, all in accordance with logical pass out conclusion after conclusion, all in accordance with logical
law, and with no more slips than would be expected of a keyboard law, and with no more slips than would be expected of a keyboard
adding machine. adding machine.<br><br>
Logic can become enormously difficult, and it would undoubtedly be Logic can become enormously difficult, and it would undoubtedly be
well to produce more assurance in its use. The machines for higher well to produce more assurance in its use. The machines for higher
@ -526,7 +533,7 @@ relationship expressed by an equation in accordance with strict and
rather advanced logic. Progress is inhibited by the exceedingly crude rather advanced logic. Progress is inhibited by the exceedingly crude
way in which mathematicians express their relationships. They employ way in which mathematicians express their relationships. They employ
a symbolism which grew like Topsy and has little consistency; a a symbolism which grew like Topsy and has little consistency; a
strange fact in that most logical field. strange fact in that most logical field.<br><br>
A new symbolism, probably positional, must apparently precede the A new symbolism, probably positional, must apparently precede the
reduction of mathematical transformations to machine processes. Then, reduction of mathematical transformations to machine processes. Then,
@ -534,7 +541,7 @@ on beyond the strict logic of the mathematician, lies the application
of logic in everyday affairs. We may some day click off arguments on of logic in everyday affairs. We may some day click off arguments on
a machine with the same assurance that we now enter sales on a cash a machine with the same assurance that we now enter sales on a cash
register. But the machine of logic will not look like a cash register. But the machine of logic will not look like a cash
register, even a streamlined model. register, even a streamlined model.<br><br>
So much for the manipulation of ideas and their insertion into the So much for the manipulation of ideas and their insertion into the
record. Thus far we seem to be worse off than before - for we can record. Thus far we seem to be worse off than before - for we can
@ -547,7 +554,7 @@ are halting indeed. There may be millions of fine thoughts, and the
account of the experience on which they are based, all encased within account of the experience on which they are based, all encased within
stone walls of acceptable architectural form; but if the scholar can stone walls of acceptable architectural form; but if the scholar can
get at only one a week by diligent search, his syntheses are not get at only one a week by diligent search, his syntheses are not
likely to keep up with the current scene. likely to keep up with the current scene.<br><br>
Selection, in this broad sense, is a stone adze in the hands of a Selection, in this broad sense, is a stone adze in the hands of a
cabinetmaker. Yet, in a narrow sense and in other areas, something cabinetmaker. Yet, in a narrow sense and in other areas, something
@ -561,7 +568,7 @@ fingerprints with one of five millions on file. Selection devices of
this sort will soon be speeded up from their present rate of reviewing this sort will soon be speeded up from their present rate of reviewing
data at a few hundred a minute. By the use of photocells and data at a few hundred a minute. By the use of photocells and
microfilm they will survey items at the rate of thousands a second, microfilm they will survey items at the rate of thousands a second,
and will print out duplicates of those selected. and will print out duplicates of those selected.<br><br>
This process, however, is simple selection: it proceeds by examining This process, however, is simple selection: it proceeds by examining
in turn every one of a large set of items, and by picking out those in turn every one of a large set of items, and by picking out those
@ -577,7 +584,7 @@ If necessary, it could be made extremely fast by substituting
thermionic-tube switching for mechanical switching, so that the full thermionic-tube switching for mechanical switching, so that the full
selection could be made in one-hundredth of a second. No one would selection could be made in one-hundredth of a second. No one would
wish to spend the money necessary to make this change in the telephone wish to spend the money necessary to make this change in the telephone
system, but the general idea is applicable elsewhere. system, but the general idea is applicable elsewhere.<br><br>
Take the prosaic problem of the great department store. Every time a Take the prosaic problem of the great department store. Every time a
charge sale is made, there are a number of things to be done.. The charge sale is made, there are a number of things to be done.. The
@ -590,7 +597,7 @@ card, and the card taken from the article sold - all punched cards.
When he pulls a lever, contacts are made through the holes, machinery When he pulls a lever, contacts are made through the holes, machinery
at a central point makes the necessary computations and entries, and at a central point makes the necessary computations and entries, and
the proper receipt is printed for the salesman to pass to the the proper receipt is printed for the salesman to pass to the
customer. customer.<br><br>
But there may be ten thousand charge customers doing business with the But there may be ten thousand charge customers doing business with the
store, and before the full operation can be completed someone has to store, and before the full operation can be completed someone has to
@ -600,7 +607,7 @@ or two, and return it afterward. Another difficulty occurs, however.
Someone must read a total on the card, so that the machine can add its Someone must read a total on the card, so that the machine can add its
computed item to it. Conceivably the cards might be of the dry computed item to it. Conceivably the cards might be of the dry
photography type I have described. Existing totals could then be read photography type I have described. Existing totals could then be read
by photocell, and the new total entered by an electron beam. by photocell, and the new total entered by an electron beam.<br><br>
The cards may be in miniature, so that they occupy little space. They The cards may be in miniature, so that they occupy little space. They
must move quickly. They need not be transferred far, but merely into must move quickly. They need not be transferred far, but merely into
@ -616,7 +623,7 @@ scheme by which Poulsen long ago put speech on a magnetic wire. This
method has the advantage of simplicity and ease of erasure. By using method has the advantage of simplicity and ease of erasure. By using
photography, however, one can arrange to project the record in photography, however, one can arrange to project the record in
enlarged form, and at a distance by using the process common in enlarged form, and at a distance by using the process common in
television equipment. television equipment.<br><br>
One can consider rapid selection of this form, and distant projection One can consider rapid selection of this form, and distant projection
for other purposes. To be able to key one sheet of a million before for other purposes. To be able to key one sheet of a million before
@ -627,8 +634,8 @@ interesting combinations possible. One might, for example, speak to a
microphone, in the manner described in connection with the microphone, in the manner described in connection with the
speech-controlled typewriter, and thus make his selections. It would speech-controlled typewriter, and thus make his selections. It would
certainly beat the usual file clerk. certainly beat the usual file clerk.
<br><br>
6 6<br><br>
The real heart of the matter of selection, however, goes deeper than a The real heart of the matter of selection, however, goes deeper than a
lag in the adoption of mechanisms by libraries, or a lack of lag in the adoption of mechanisms by libraries, or a lack of
@ -640,7 +647,7 @@ by tracing it down from subclass to subclass. It can be in only one
place, unless duplicates are used; one has to have rules as to which place, unless duplicates are used; one has to have rules as to which
path will locate it, and the rules are cumbersome. Having found one path will locate it, and the rules are cumbersome. Having found one
item, moreover, one has to emerge from the system and re-enter on a item, moreover, one has to emerge from the system and re-enter on a
new path. new path.<br><br>
The human mind does not work that way. It operates by association. The human mind does not work that way. It operates by association.
With one item in its grasp, it snaps instantly to the next that is With one item in its grasp, it snaps instantly to the next that is
@ -649,7 +656,7 @@ intricate web of trails carried by the cells of the brain. It has
other characteristics, of course; trails that are not frequently other characteristics, of course; trails that are not frequently
followed are prone to fade, items are not fully permanent, memory is followed are prone to fade, items are not fully permanent, memory is
transitory. Yet the speed of action, the intricacy of trails, the transitory. Yet the speed of action, the intricacy of trails, the
detail of mental pictures, is awe-inspiring beyond all else in nature. detail of mental pictures, is awe-inspiring beyond all else in nature.<br><br>
Man cannot hope fully to duplicate this mental process artificially, Man cannot hope fully to duplicate this mental process artificially,
but he certainly ought to be able to learn from it. In minor ways he but he certainly ought to be able to learn from it. In minor ways he
@ -659,27 +666,27 @@ Selection by association, rather than by indexing, may yet be
mechanized. One cannot hope thus to equal the speed and flexibility mechanized. One cannot hope thus to equal the speed and flexibility
with which the mind follows an associative trail, but it should be with which the mind follows an associative trail, but it should be
possible to beat the mind decisively in regard to the permanence and possible to beat the mind decisively in regard to the permanence and
clarity of the items resurrected from storage. clarity of the items resurrected from storage.<br><br>
Consider a future device for individual use, which is a sort of Consider a future device for individual use, which is a sort of
mechanized private file and library. It needs a name, and to coin mechanized private file and library. It needs a name, and to coin
one at random, ``memex'' will do. A memex is a device in which an one at random, ``memex'' will do. A memex is a device in which an
individual stores all his books, records, and communications, and individual stores all his books, records, and communications, and
which is mechanized so that it may be consulted with exceeding speed which is mechanized so that it may be consulted with exceeding speed
and flexibility. It is an enlarged intimate supplement to his memory. and flexibility. It is an enlarged intimate supplement to his memory.<br><br>
It consists of a desk, and while it can presumably be operated from a It consists of a desk, and while it can presumably be operated from a
distance, it is primarily the piece of furniture at which he works. distance, it is primarily the piece of furniture at which he works.
On the top are slanting translucent screens, on which material can be On the top are slanting translucent screens, on which material can be
projected for convenient reading. There is a keyboard, and sets of projected for convenient reading. There is a keyboard, and sets of
buttons and levers. Otherwise it looks like an ordinary desk. buttons and levers. Otherwise it looks like an ordinary desk.<br><br>
In one end is the stored material. The matter of bulk is well taken In one end is the stored material. The matter of bulk is well taken
care of by improved microfilm. Only a small part of the interior of care of by improved microfilm. Only a small part of the interior of
the memex is devoted to storage, the rest to mechanism. Yet if the the memex is devoted to storage, the rest to mechanism. Yet if the
user inserted 5000 pages of material a day it would take him hundreds user inserted 5000 pages of material a day it would take him hundreds
of years to fill the repository, so he can be profligate and enter of years to fill the repository, so he can be profligate and enter
material freely. material freely.<br><br>
Most of the memex contents are purchased on microfilm ready for Most of the memex contents are purchased on microfilm ready for
insertion. Books of all sorts, pictures, current periodicals, insertion. Books of all sorts, pictures, current periodicals,
@ -689,7 +696,7 @@ entry. On the top of the memex is a transparent platen. On this are
placed longhand notes, photographs, memoranda, all sort of things. placed longhand notes, photographs, memoranda, all sort of things.
When one is in place, the depression of a lever causes it to be When one is in place, the depression of a lever causes it to be
photographed onto the next blank space in a section of the memex film, photographed onto the next blank space in a section of the memex film,
dry photography being employed. dry photography being employed.<br><br>
There is, of course, provision for consultation of the record by the There is, of course, provision for consultation of the record by the
usual scheme of indexing. If the user wishes to consult a certain usual scheme of indexing. If the user wishes to consult a certain
@ -703,7 +710,7 @@ before him, each page in turn being projected at a speed which just
allows a recognizing glance at each. If he deflects it further to the allows a recognizing glance at each. If he deflects it further to the
right, he steps through the book 10 pages at a time; still further at right, he steps through the book 10 pages at a time; still further at
100 pages at a time. Deflection to the left gives him the same 100 pages at a time. Deflection to the left gives him the same
control backwards. control backwards.<br><br>
A special button transfers him immediately to the first page of the A special button transfers him immediately to the first page of the
index. Any given book of his library can thus be called up and index. Any given book of his library can thus be called up and
@ -713,9 +720,9 @@ in position while he calls up another. He can add marginal notes and
comments, taking advantage of one possible type of dry photography, comments, taking advantage of one possible type of dry photography,
and it could even be arranged so that he can do this by a stylus and it could even be arranged so that he can do this by a stylus
scheme, such as is now employed in the telautograph seen in railroad scheme, such as is now employed in the telautograph seen in railroad
waiting rooms, just as though he had the physical page before him. waiting rooms, just as though he had the physical page before him.<br><br>
7 7<br><br>
All this is conventional, except for the projection forward of All this is conventional, except for the projection forward of
present-day mechanisms and gadgetry. It affords an immediate step, present-day mechanisms and gadgetry. It affords an immediate step,
@ -723,7 +730,7 @@ however, to associative indexing, the basic idea of which is a
provision whereby any item may be caused at will to select immediately provision whereby any item may be caused at will to select immediately
and automatically another. This is the essential feature of the and automatically another. This is the essential feature of the
memex. The process of tying two items together is the important memex. The process of tying two items together is the important
thing. thing.<br><br>
When the user is building a trail, he names it, inserts the name in When the user is building a trail, he names it, inserts the name in
his code book, and taps it out on his keyboard. Before him are the his code book, and taps it out on his keyboard. Before him are the
@ -733,7 +740,7 @@ pointer is set to indicate one of these on each item. The user taps a
single key, and the items are permanently joined. In each code space single key, and the items are permanently joined. In each code space
appears the code word. Out of view, but also in the code space, is appears the code word. Out of view, but also in the code space, is
inserted a set of dots for photocell viewing; and on each item these inserted a set of dots for photocell viewing; and on each item these
dots by their positions designate the index number of the other item. dots by their positions designate the index number of the other item.<br><br>
Thereafter, at any time, when one of these items is in view, the other Thereafter, at any time, when one of these items is in view, the other
can be instantly recalled merely by tapping a button below the can be instantly recalled merely by tapping a button below the
@ -742,7 +749,7 @@ thus joined together to form a trail, they can be reviewed in turn,
rapidly or slowly, by deflecting a lever like that used for turning rapidly or slowly, by deflecting a lever like that used for turning
the pages of a book. It is exactly as though the physical items had the pages of a book. It is exactly as though the physical items had
been gathered together to form a new book. It is more than this, for been gathered together to form a new book. It is more than this, for
any item can be joined into numerous trails. any item can be joined into numerous trails.<br><br>
The owner of the memex, let us say, is interested in the origin and The owner of the memex, let us say, is interested in the origin and
properties of the bow and arrow. Specifically he is studying why the properties of the bow and arrow. Specifically he is studying why the
@ -759,7 +766,7 @@ materials had a great deal to do with the bow, he branches off on a
side trail which takes him through textbooks on elasticity and tables side trail which takes him through textbooks on elasticity and tables
of physical constants. He inserts a page of longhand analysis of his of physical constants. He inserts a page of longhand analysis of his
own. Thus he builds a trail of his interest through the maze of own. Thus he builds a trail of his interest through the maze of
materials available to him. materials available to him.<br><br><br><br>
And his trails do not fade. Several years later, his talk with a And his trails do not fade. Several years later, his talk with a
friend turns to the queer ways in which a people resist innovations, friend turns to the queer ways in which a people resist innovations,
@ -771,9 +778,9 @@ stopping at interesting items, going off on side excursions. It is an
interesting trail, pertinent to the discussion. So he sets a interesting trail, pertinent to the discussion. So he sets a
reproducer in action, photographs the whole trail out, and passes it reproducer in action, photographs the whole trail out, and passes it
to his friend for insertion in his own memex, there to be linked into to his friend for insertion in his own memex, there to be linked into
the more general trail. the more general trail.<br><br>
8 8<br><br>
Wholly new forms of encyclopedias will appear, ready-made with a mesh Wholly new forms of encyclopedias will appear, ready-made with a mesh
of associative trails running through them, ready to be dropped into of associative trails running through them, ready to be dropped into
@ -788,7 +795,7 @@ histories, with side references to the classics for the pertinent
anatomy and histology. The chemist, struggling with the synthesis of anatomy and histology. The chemist, struggling with the synthesis of
an organic compound, has all the chemical literature before him in his an organic compound, has all the chemical literature before him in his
laboratory, with trails following the analogies of compounds, and side laboratory, with trails following the analogies of compounds, and side
trails to their physical and chemical behavior. trails to their physical and chemical behavior.<br><br>
The historian, with a vast chronological account of a people, The historian, with a vast chronological account of a people,
parallels it with a skip trail which stops only at the salient items, parallels it with a skip trail which stops only at the salient items,
@ -798,7 +805,7 @@ trail blazers, those who find delight in the task of establishing
useful trails through the enormous mass of the common record. The useful trails through the enormous mass of the common record. The
inheritance from the master becomes, not only his additions to the inheritance from the master becomes, not only his additions to the
world's record, but for his disciples the entire scaffolding by which world's record, but for his disciples the entire scaffolding by which
they were erected. they were erected.<br><br>
Thus science may implement the ways in which man produces, stores, and Thus science may implement the ways in which man produces, stores, and
consults the record of the race. It might be striking to outline the consults the record of the race. It might be striking to outline the
@ -812,12 +819,12 @@ picture may not be too commonplace, by reason of sticking to
present-day patterns, it may be well to mention one such possibility, present-day patterns, it may be well to mention one such possibility,
not to prophesy but merely to suggest, for prophecy based on extension not to prophesy but merely to suggest, for prophecy based on extension
of the known has substance, while prophecy founded on the unknown is of the known has substance, while prophecy founded on the unknown is
only a doubly involved guess. only a doubly involved guess.<br><br>
All our steps in creating or absorbing material of the record proceed All our steps in creating or absorbing material of the record proceed
through one of the senses - the tactile when we touch keys, the oral through one of the senses - the tactile when we touch keys, the oral
when we speak or listen, the visual when we read. Is it not possible when we speak or listen, the visual when we read. Is it not possible
that some day the path may be established more directly? that some day the path may be established more directly?<br><br>
We know that when the eye sees, all the consequent information is We know that when the eye sees, all the consequent information is
transmitted to the brain by means of electrical vibrations in the transmitted to the brain by means of electrical vibrations in the
@ -828,14 +835,14 @@ transmitter from which it is broadcast. We know further that if we
can approach that cable with the proper instruments, we do not need to can approach that cable with the proper instruments, we do not need to
touch it; we can pick up those vibrations by electrical induction and touch it; we can pick up those vibrations by electrical induction and
thus discover and reproduce the scene which is being transmitted, just thus discover and reproduce the scene which is being transmitted, just
as a telephone wire may be tapped for its message. as a telephone wire may be tapped for its message.<br><br>
The impulses which flow in the arm nerves of a typist convey to her The impulses which flow in the arm nerves of a typist convey to her
fingers the translated information which reaches her eye or ear, in fingers the translated information which reaches her eye or ear, in
order that the fingers may be caused to strike the proper keys. Might order that the fingers may be caused to strike the proper keys. Might
not these currents be intercepted, either in the original form in not these currents be intercepted, either in the original form in
which information is conveyed to the brain, or in the marvelously which information is conveyed to the brain, or in the marvelously
metamorphosed form in which they then proceed to the hand? metamorphosed form in which they then proceed to the hand?<br><br>
By bone conduction we already introduce sounds into the nerve channels By bone conduction we already introduce sounds into the nerve channels
of the deaf in order that they may hear. Is it not possible that we of the deaf in order that they may hear. Is it not possible that we
@ -847,7 +854,7 @@ pen-and-ink traces which bear some relation to the electrical
phenomena going on in the brain itself. True, the record is phenomena going on in the brain itself. True, the record is
unintelligible, except as it points out certain gross misfunctioning unintelligible, except as it points out certain gross misfunctioning
of the cerebral mechanism; but who would now place bounds on where of the cerebral mechanism; but who would now place bounds on where
such a thing may lead? such a thing may lead?<br><br>
In the outside world, all forms of intelligence, whether of sound or In the outside world, all forms of intelligence, whether of sound or
sight, have been reduced to the form of varying currents in an sight, have been reduced to the form of varying currents in an
@ -856,7 +863,7 @@ human frame exactly the same sort of process occurs. Must we always
transform to mechanical movements in order to proceed from one transform to mechanical movements in order to proceed from one
electrical phenomenon to another? It is a suggestive thought, but it electrical phenomenon to another? It is a suggestive thought, but it
hardly warrants prediction without losing touch with reality and hardly warrants prediction without losing touch with reality and
immediateness. immediateness.<br><br>
Presumably man's spirit should be elevated if he can better review his Presumably man's spirit should be elevated if he can better review his
shady past and analyze more completely and objectively his present shady past and analyze more completely and objectively his present
@ -866,7 +873,7 @@ logical conclusion and not merely become bogged down part way there by
overtaxing his limited memory. His excursion may be more enjoyable if overtaxing his limited memory. His excursion may be more enjoyable if
he can reacquire the privilege of forgetting the manifold things he he can reacquire the privilege of forgetting the manifold things he
does not need to have immediately at hand, with some assurance that he does not need to have immediately at hand, with some assurance that he
can find them again if they prove important. can find them again if they prove important.<br><br>
The applications of science have built man a well-supplied house, and The applications of science have built man a well-supplied house, and
are teaching him to live healthily therein. They have enabled him to are teaching him to live healthily therein. They have enabled him to
@ -880,10 +887,114 @@ lose hope as to the outcome.
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