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+ AS WE MAY THINK + by VANNEVAR BUSH + + THE ATLANTIC MONTHLY, JULY 1945 + +---------------------------------------------------------------------- + +As Director of the Office of Scientific Research and Development, Dr. +Vannevar Bush has coordinated the activities of some six thousand +leading American scientists in the application of science to warfare. +In this significant article he holds up an incentive for scientists +when the fighting has ceased. He urges that men of science should +then turn to the massive task of making more accessible our +bewildering store of knowledge. For many years inventions have +extended man's physical powers rather than the powers of his mind. +Trip hammers that multiply the fists, microscopes that sharpen the +eye, and engines of destruction and detection are new results, but the +end results, of modern science. Now, says Dr. Bush, instruments are +at hand which, if properly developed, will give man access to and +command over the inherited knowledge of the ages. The perfection of +these pacific instruments should be the first objective of our +scientists as they emerge from their war work. Like Emerson's famous +address of 1837 on ``The American Scholar,'' this paper by Dr. Bush +calls for a new relationship between thinking man and the sum of our +knowledge. - The Editor + +---------------------------------------------------------------------- + +This has not been a scientist's war; it has been a war in which all +have had a part. The scientists, burying their old professional +competition in the demand of a common cause, have shared greatly and +learned much. It has been exhilarating to work in effective +partnership. Now, for many, this appears to be approaching an end. +What are the scientists to do next? + +For the biologists, and particularly for the medical scientists, there +can be little indecision, for their war work has hardly required them +to leave the old paths. Many indeed have been able to carry on their +war research in their familiar peacetime laboratories. Their +objectives remain much the same. + +It is the physicists who have been thrown most violently off stride, +who have left academic pursuits for the making of strange destructive +gadgets, who have had to devise new methods for their unanticipated +assignments. They have done their part on the devices that made it +possible to turn back the enemy. They have worked in combined effort +with the physicists of our allies. They have felt within themselves +the stir of achievement. They have been part of a great team. Now, +as peace approaches, one asks where they will find objectives worthy +of their best. + + 1 + +Of what lasting benefit has been man's use of science and of the new +instruments which his research brought into existence? First, they +have increased his control of his material environment. They have +improved his food, his clothing, his shelter; they have increased his +security and released him partly from the bondage of bare existence. +They have given him increased knowledge of his own biological +processes so that he has had a progressive freedom from disease and an +increased span of life. They are illuminating the interactions of his +physiological and psychological functions, giving the promise of an +improved mental health. + +Science has provided the swiftest communication between individuals; +it has provided a record of ideas and has enabled man to manipulate +and to make extracts from that record so that knowledge evolves and +endures throughout the life of a race rather than that of an +individual. + +There is a growing mountain of research. But there is increased +evidence that we are being bogged down today as specialization +extends. The investigator is staggered by the findings and +conclusions of thousands of other workers - conclusions which he +cannot find time to grasp, much less to remember, as they appear. Yet +specialization becomes increasingly necessary for progress, and the +effort to bridge between disciplines is correspondingly superficial. + +Professionally our methods of transmitting and reviewing the results +of research are generations old and by now are totally inadequate for +their purpose. If the aggregate time spent in writing scholarly works +and in reading them could be evaluated, the ratio between these +amounts of time might well be startling. Those who conscientiously +attempt to keep abreast of current thought, even in restricted fields, +by close and continuous reading might well shy away from an +examination calculated to show how much of the previous month's +efforts could be produced on call. Mendel's concept of the laws of +genetics was lost to the world for a generation because his +publication did not reach the few who were capable of grasping and +extending it; and this sort of catastrophe is undoubtedly being +repeated all about us, as truly significant attainments become lost in +the mass of the inconsequential. + +The difficulty seems to be, not so much that we publish unduly in view +of the extent and variety of present-day interests, but rather that +publication has been extended far beyond our present ability to make +real use of the record. The summation of human experience is being +expanded at a prodigious rate, and the means we use for threading +through the consequent maze to the momentarily important item is the +same as was used in the days of square-rigged ships. + +But there are signs of a change as new and powerful instrumentalities +come into use. Photocells capable of seeing things in a physical +sense, advanced photography which can record what is seen or even what +is not, thermionic tubes capable of controlling potent forces under +the guidance of less power than a mosquito uses to vibrate his wings, +cathode ray tubes rendering visible an occurrence so brief that by +comparison a microsecond is a long time, relay combinations which will +carry out involved sequences of movements more reliably than any human +operator and thousand of times as fast - there are plenty of +mechanical aids with which to effect a transformation in scientific +records. + +Two centuries ago Leibnitz invented a calculating machine which +embodied most of the essential features of recent keyboard devices, +but it could not then come into use. The economics of the situation +were against it: the labor involved in constructing it, before the +days of mass production, exceeded the labor to be saved by its use, +since all it could accomplish could be duplicated by sufficient use of +pencil and paper. Moreover, it would have been subject to frequent +breakdown, so that it could not have been depended upon; for at that +time and long after, complexity and unreliability were synonymous. + +Babbage, even with remarkably generous support for his time, could not +produce his great arithmetical machine. His idea was sound enough, +but construction and maintenance costs were then too heavy. Had a +Pharaoh been given detailed and explicit designs of an automobile, and +had he understood them completely, it would have taxed the resources +of his kingdom to have fashioned the thousands of parts for a single +car, and that car would have broken down on the first trip to Giza. + +Machines with interchangeable parts can now be constructed with great +economy of effort. In spite of much complexity, they perform reliably. +Witness the humble typewriter, or the movie camera, or the automobile. +Electrical contacts have ceased to stick when thoroughly understood. +Note the automatic telephone exchange, which has hundred of thousands +of such contacts, and yet is reliable. A spider web of metal, sealed +in a thin glass container, a wire heated to brilliant glow, in short, +the thermionic tube of radio sets, is made by the hundred million, +tossed about in packages, plugged into sockets - and it works! Its +gossamer parts, the precise location and alignment involved in its +construction, would have occupied a master craftsman of the guild for +months; now it is built for thirty cents. The world has arrived at an +age of cheap complex devices of great reliability; and something is +bound to come of it. + + 2 + +A record, if it is to be useful to science, must be continuously +extended, it must be stored, and above all it must be consulted. +Today we make the record conventionally by writing and photography, +followed by printing; but we also record on film, on wax disks, and on +magnetic wires. Even if utterly new recording procedures do not +appear, these present ones are certainly in the process of +modification and extension. + +Certainly progress in photography is not going to stop. Faster +material and lenses, more automatic cameras, finer-grained sensitive +compounds to allow an extension of the minicamera idea, are all +imminent. Let us project this trend ahead to a logical, if not +inevitable, outcome. The camera hound of the future wears on his +forehead a lump a little larger than a walnut. It takes pictures 3 +millimeters square, later to be projected or enlarged, which after all +involves only a factor of 10 beyond present practice. The lens is of +universal focus, down to any distance accommodated by the unaided eye, +simply because it is of short focal length. There is a built-in +photocell on the walnut such as we now have on at least one camera, +which automatically adjusts exposure for a wide range of illumination. +There is film in the walnut for a hundred exposures, and the spring for +operating its shutter and shifting its film is wound once for all when +the film clip is inserted. It produces its result in full color. It +may well be stereoscopic, and record with spaced glass eyes, for +striking improvements in stereoscopic technique are just around the +corner. + +The cord which trips its shutter may reach down a man's sleeve within +easy reach of his fingers. A quick squeeze, and the picture is taken. +On a pair of ordinary glasses is a square of fine lines near the top +of one lens, where it is out of the way of ordinary vision. When an +object appears in that square, it is lined up for its picture. As the +scientist of the future moves about the laboratory or the field, every +time he looks at something worthy of the record, he trips the shutter +and in it goes, without even an audible click. Is this all fantastic? +The only fantastic thing about it is the idea of making as many +pictures as would result from its use. + +Will there be dry photography? It is already here in two forms. When +Brady made his Civil War pictures, the plate had to be wet at the time +of exposure. Now it has to be wet during development instead. In the +future perhaps it need not be wetted at all. There have long been +films impregnated with diazo dyes which form a picture without +development, so that it is already there as soon as the camera has +been operated. An exposure to ammonia gas destroys the unexposed dye, +and the picture can then be taken out into the light and examined. +The process is now slow, but someone may speed it up, and it has no +grain difficulties such as now keep photographic researchers busy. +Often it would be advantageous to be able to snap the camera and to +look at the picture immediately. + +Another process now in use is also slow, and more or less clumsy. For +fifty years impregnated papers have been used which turn dark at every +point where an electrical contact touches them, by reason of the +chemical change thus produced in an iodine compound included in the +paper. They have been used to make records, for a pointer moving +across them can leave a trail behind. If the electrical potential on +the pointer is varied as it moves, the line becomes light or dark in +accordance with the potential. + +This scheme is now used in facsimile transmission. The pointer draws +a set of closely spaced lines across the paper one after another. As +it moves, its potential is varied in accordance with a varying current +received over wires from a distant station, where these variations are +produced by a photocell which is similarly scanning a picture. At +every instant the darkness of the line being drawn is made equal to +the darkness of the point on the picture being observed by the +photocell. Thus, when the whole picture has been covered, a replica +appears at the receiving end. + +A scene itself can be just as well looked over line by line by the +photocell in this way as can a photograph of the scene. This whole +apparatus constitutes a camera, with the added feature, which can be +dispensed with if desired, of making its picture at a distance. It is +slow, and the picture is poor in detail. Still, it does give another +process of dry photography, in which the picture is finished as soon +as it is taken. + +It would be a brave man who could predict that such a process will +always remain clumsy, slow, and faulty in detail. Television +equipment today transmits sixteen reasonably good images a second, and +it involves only two essential differences from the process described +above. For one, the record is made by a moving beam of electrons +rather than a moving pointer, for the reason that an electron beam can +sweep across the picture very rapidly indeed. The other difference +involves merely the use of a screen which glows momentarily when the +electrons hit, rather than a chemically treated paper or film which is +permanently altered. This speed is necessary in television, for +motion pictures rather than stills are the object. + +Use chemically treated film in place of the glowing screen, allow the +apparatus to transmit one picture rather than a succession, and a +rapid camera for dry photography results. The treated film needs to +be far faster in action than present examples, but it probably could +be. More serious is the objection that this scheme would involve +putting the film inside a vacuum chamber, for electron beams behave +normally only in such a rarefied environment. This difficulty could +be avoided by allowing the electron beam to play on one side of a +partition, and by pressing the film against the other side, if this +partition were such as to allow the electrons to go through +perpendicular to its surface, and to prevent them from spreading out +sideways. Such partitions, in crude form, could certainly be +constructed, and they will hardly hold up the general development. + +Like dry photography, microphotography still has a long way to go. +The basic scheme of reducing the size of the record, and examining it +by projection rather than directly, has possibilities too great to be +ignored. The combination of optical projection and photographic +reduction is already producing some results in microfilm for scholarly +purposes, and the potentialities are highly suggestive. Today, with +microfilm, reductions by a linear factor of 20 can be employed and +still produce full clarity when the material is re-enlarged for +examination. The limits are set by the graininess of the film, the +excellence of the optical system, and the efficiency of the light +sources employed. All of these are rapidly improving. + +Assume a linear ratio of 100 for future use. Consider film of the +same thickness as paper, although thinner film will certainly be +usable. Even under these conditions there would be a total factor of +10,000 between the bulk of the ordinary record on books, and its +microfilm replica. The Encyclopoedia Britannica could be reduced to +the volume of a matchbox. A library of a million volumes could be +compressed into one end of a desk. If the human race has produced +since the invention of movable type a total record, in the form of +magazines, newspapers, books, tracts, advertising blurbs, +correspondence, having a volume corresponding to a billion books, the +whole affair, assembled and compressed, could be lugged off in a +moving van. Mere compression, of course, is not enough; one needs not +only to make and store a record but also to be able to consult it, and +this aspect of the matter comes later. Even the modern great library +is not generally consulted; it is nibbled by a few. + +Compression is important, however, when it comes to costs. The +material for the microfilm Britannica would cost a nickel, and it +could be mailed anywhere for a cent. What would it cost to print a +million copies? To print a sheet of newspaper, in a large edition, +costs a small fraction of a cent. The entire material of the +Britannica in reduced microfilm form would go on a sheet eight and +one-half by eleven inches. Once it is available, with the +photographic reproduction methods of the future, duplicates in large +quantities could probably be turned out for a cent apiece beyond the +cost of materials. The preparation of the original copy? That +introduces the next aspect of the subject. + + 3 + +To make the record, we now push a pencil or tap a typewriter. Then +comes the process of digestion and correction, followed by an +intricate process of typesetting, printing, and distribution. To +consider the first stage of the procedure, will the author of the +future cease writing by hand or typewriter and talk directly to the +record? He does so indirectly, by talking to a stenographer or a wax +cylinder; but the elements are all present if he wishes to have his +talk directly produce a typed record. All he needs to do is to take +advantage of existing mechanisms and to alter his language. + +At a recent World Fair a machine called a Voder was shown. A girl +stroked its keys and it emitted recognizable speech. No human vocal +cords entered in the procedure at any point; the keys simply combined +some electrically produced vibrations and passed these on to a +loud-speaker. In the Bell Laboratories there is the converse of this +machine, called a Vocoder. The loudspeaker is replaced by a +microphone, which picks up sound. Speak to it, and the corresponding +keys move. This may be one element of the postulated system. + +The other element is found in the stenotype, that somewhat +disconcerting device encountered usually at public meetings. A girl +strokes its keys languidly and looks about the room and sometimes at +the speaker with a disquieting gaze. From it emerges a typed strip +which records in a phonetically simplified language a record of what +the speaker is supposed to have said. Later this strip is retyped +into ordinary language, for in its nascent form it is intelligible +only to the initiated. Combine these two elements, let the Vocoder +run the stenotype, and the result is a machine which types when talked +to. + +Our present languages are not especially adapted to this sort of +mechanization, it is true. It is strange that the inventors of +universal languages have not seized upon the idea of producing one +which better fitted the technique for transmitting and recording +speech. Mechanization may yet force the issue, especially in the +scientific field; whereupon scientific jargon would become still less +intelligible to the layman. + +One can now picture a future investigator in his laboratory. His +hands are free, and he is not anchored. As he moves about and +observes, he photographs and comments. Time is automatically recorded +to tie the two records together. If he goes into the field, he may be +connected by radio to his recorder. As he ponders over his notes in +the evening, he again talks his comments into the record. His typed +record, as well as his photographs, may both be in miniature, so that +he projects them for examination. + +Much needs to occur, however, between the collection of data and +observations, the extraction of parallel material from the existing +record, and the final insertion of new material into the general body +of the common record. For mature thought there is no mechanical +substitute. But creative thought and essentially repetitive thought +are very different things. For the latter there are, and may be, +powerful mechanical aids. + +Adding a column of figures is a repetitive thought process, and it was +long ago properly relegated to the machine. True, the machine is +sometimes controlled by the keyboard, and thought of a sort enters in +reading the figures and poking the corresponding keys, but even this +is avoidable. Machines have been made which will read typed figures +by photocells and then depress the corresponding keys; these are +combinations of photocells for scanning the type, electric circuits +for sorting the consequent variations, and relay circuits for +interpreting the result into the action of solenoids to pull the keys +down. + +All this complication is needed because of the clumsy way in which we +have learned to write figures. If we recorded them positionally, +simply by the configuration of a set of dots on a card, the automatic +reading mechanism would become comparatively simple. In fact, if the +dots are holes, we have the punched-card machine long ago produced by +Hollorith for the purposes of the census, and now used throughout +business. Some types of complex businesses could hardly operate +without these machines. + +Adding is only one operation. To perform arithmetical computation +involves also subtraction, multiplication, and division, and in +addition some method for temporary storage of results, removal from +storage for further manipulation, and recording of final results by +printing. Machines for these purposes are now of two types: keyboard +machines for accounting and the like, manually controlled for the +insertion of data, and usually automatically controlled as far as the +sequence of operations is concerned; and punched-card machines in +which separate operations are usually delegated to a series of +machines, and the cards then transferred bodily from one to another. +Both forms are very useful; but as far as complex computations are +concerned, both are still embryo. + +Rapid electrical counting appeared soon after the physicists found it +desirable to count cosmic rays. For their own purposes the physicists +promptly constructed thermionic-tube equipment capable of counting +electrical impulses at the rate of 100,000 a second. The advanced +arithmetical machines of the future will be electrical in nature, and +they will perform at 100 times present speeds, or more. + +Moreover, they will be far more versatile than present commercial +machines, so that they may readily be adapted for a wide variety of +operations. They will be controlled by a control card or film, they +will select their own data and manipulate it in accordance with the +instructions thus inserted, they will perform complex arithmetical +computations at exceedingly high speeds, and they will record results +in such form as to be readily available for distribution or for later +further manipulation. Such machines will have enormous appetites. +One of them will take instructions and data from a roomful of girls +armed with simple keyboard punches, and will deliver sheets of +computed results every few minutes. There will always be plenty of +things to compute in the detailed affairs of millions of people doing +complicated things. + + 4 + +The repetitive processes of thought are not confined, however, to +matters of arithmetic and statistics. In fact, every time one +combines and records facts in accordance with established logical +processes, the creative aspect of thinking is concerned only with the +selection of the data and the process to be employed, and the +manipulation thereafter is repetitive in nature and hence a fit matter +to be relegated to the machines. Not so much has been done along +these lines, beyond the bounds of arithmetic, as might be done, +primarily because of the economics of the situation. The needs of +business, and the extensive market obviously waiting, assured the +advent of mass-produced arithmetical machines just as soon as +production methods were sufficiently advanced. + +With machines for advanced analysis no such situation existed; for +there was and is no extensive market; the users of advanced methods of +manipulating data are a very small part of the population. There are, +however, machines for solving differential equations - and functional +and integral equations, for that matter. There are many special +machines, such as the harmonic synthesizer which predicts the tides. +There will be many more, appearing certainly first in the hands of the +scientist and in small numbers. + +If scientific reasoning were limited to the logical processes of +arithmetic, we should not get far in our understanding of the physical +world. One might as well attempt to grasp the game of poker entirely +by the use of the mathematics of probability. The abacus, with its +beads strung on parallel wires, led the Arabs to positional numeration +and the concept of zero many centuries before the rest of the world; +and it was a useful tool - so useful that it still exists. + +It is a far cry from the abacus to the modern keyboard accounting +machine. It will be an equal step to the arithmetical machine of the +future. But even this new machine will not take the scientist where +he needs to go. Relief must be secured from laborious detailed +manipulation of higher mathematics as well, if the users of it are to +free their brains for something more than repetitive detailed +transformations in accordance with established rules. A mathematician +is not a man who can readily manipulate figures; often he cannot. He +is not even a man who can readily perform the transformation of +equations by the use of calculus. He is primarily an individual who +is skilled in the use of symbolic logic on a high plane, and +especially he is a man of intuitive judgment in the choice of the +manipulative processes he employs. + +All else he should be able to turn over to his mechanism, just as +confidently as he turns over the propelling of his car to the +intricate mechanism under the hood. Only then will mathematics be +practically effective in bringing the growing knowledge of atomistics +to the useful solution of the advanced problems of chemistry, +metallurgy, and biology. For this reason there will come more +machines to handle advanced mathematics for the scientist. Some of +them will be sufficiently bizarre to suit the most fastidious +connoisseur of the present artifacts of civilization. + + 5 + +The scientist, however, is not the only person who manipulates data +and examines the world about him by the use of logical processes, +although he sometimes preserves this appearance by adopting into the +fold anyone who becomes logical, much in the manner in which a British +labor leader is elevated to knighthood. Whenever logical processes of +thought are employed - that is, whenever thought for a time runs along +an accepted groove - there is an opportunity for the machine. Formal +logic used to be a keen instrument in the hands of the teacher in his +trying of students' souls. It is readily possible to construct a +machine which will manipulate premises in accordance with formal +logic, simply by the clever use of relay circuits. Put a set of +premises into such a device and turn the crank, and it will readily +pass out conclusion after conclusion, all in accordance with logical +law, and with no more slips than would be expected of a keyboard +adding machine. + +Logic can become enormously difficult, and it would undoubtedly be +well to produce more assurance in its use. The machines for higher +analysis have usually been equation solvers. Ideas are beginning to +appear for equation transformers, which will rearrange the +relationship expressed by an equation in accordance with strict and +rather advanced logic. Progress is inhibited by the exceedingly crude +way in which mathematicians express their relationships. They employ +a symbolism which grew like Topsy and has little consistency; a +strange fact in that most logical field. + +A new symbolism, probably positional, must apparently precede the +reduction of mathematical transformations to machine processes. Then, +on beyond the strict logic of the mathematician, lies the application +of logic in everyday affairs. We may some day click off arguments on +a machine with the same assurance that we now enter sales on a cash +register. But the machine of logic will not look like a cash +register, even a streamlined model. + +So much for the manipulation of ideas and their insertion into the +record. Thus far we seem to be worse off than before - for we can +enormously extend the record; yet even in its present bulk we can +hardly consult it. This is a much larger matter than merely the +extraction of data for the purposes of scientific research; it +involves the entire process by which man profits by his inheritance of +acquired knowledge. The prime action of use is selection, and here we +are halting indeed. There may be millions of fine thoughts, and the +account of the experience on which they are based, all encased within +stone walls of acceptable architectural form; but if the scholar can +get at only one a week by diligent search, his syntheses are not +likely to keep up with the current scene. + +Selection, in this broad sense, is a stone adze in the hands of a +cabinetmaker. Yet, in a narrow sense and in other areas, something +has already been done mechanically on selection. The personnel +officer of a factory drops a stack of a few thousand employee cards +into a selecting machine, sets a code in accordance with an +established convention, and produces in a short time a list of all +employees who live in Trenton and know Spanish. Even such devices are +much too slow when it comes, for example, to matching a set of +fingerprints with one of five millions on file. Selection devices of +this sort will soon be speeded up from their present rate of reviewing +data at a few hundred a minute. By the use of photocells and +microfilm they will survey items at the rate of thousands a second, +and will print out duplicates of those selected. + +This process, however, is simple selection: it proceeds by examining +in turn every one of a large set of items, and by picking out those +which have certain specified characteristics. There is another form +of selection best illustrated by the automatic telephone exchange. +You dial a number and the machine selects and connects just one of a +million possible stations. It does not run over them all. It pays +attention only to a class given by a first digit, and so on; and thus +proceeds rapidly and almost unerringly to the selected station. It +requires a few seconds to make the selection, although the process +could be speeded up if increased speed were economically warranted. +If necessary, it could be made extremely fast by substituting +thermionic-tube switching for mechanical switching, so that the full +selection could be made in one-hundredth of a second. No one would +wish to spend the money necessary to make this change in the telephone +system, but the general idea is applicable elsewhere. + +Take the prosaic problem of the great department store. Every time a +charge sale is made, there are a number of things to be done.. The +inventory needs to be revised, the salesman needs to be given credit +for the sale, the general accounts need an entry, and, most important, +the customer needs to be charged. A central records device has been +developed in which much of this work is done conveniently. The +salesman places on a stand the customer's identification card, his own +card, and the card taken from the article sold - all punched cards. +When he pulls a lever, contacts are made through the holes, machinery +at a central point makes the necessary computations and entries, and +the proper receipt is printed for the salesman to pass to the +customer. + +But there may be ten thousand charge customers doing business with the +store, and before the full operation can be completed someone has to +select the right card and insert it at the central office. Now rapid +selection can slide just the proper card into position in an instant +or two, and return it afterward. Another difficulty occurs, however. +Someone must read a total on the card, so that the machine can add its +computed item to it. Conceivably the cards might be of the dry +photography type I have described. Existing totals could then be read +by photocell, and the new total entered by an electron beam. + +The cards may be in miniature, so that they occupy little space. They +must move quickly. They need not be transferred far, but merely into +position so that the photocell and recorder can operate on them. +Positional dots can enter the data. At the end of the month a machine +can readily be made to read these and to print an ordinary bill. With +tube selection, in which no mechanical parts are involved in the +switches, little time need be occupied in bringing the correct card +into use - a second should suffice for the entire operation. The +whole record on the card may be made by magnetic dots on a steel sheet +if desired, instead of dots to be observed optically, following the +scheme by which Poulsen long ago put speech on a magnetic wire. This +method has the advantage of simplicity and ease of erasure. By using +photography, however, one can arrange to project the record in +enlarged form, and at a distance by using the process common in +television equipment. + +One can consider rapid selection of this form, and distant projection +for other purposes. To be able to key one sheet of a million before +an operator in a second or two, with the possibility of then adding +notes thereto, is suggestive in many ways. It might even be of use in +libraries, but that is another story. At any rate, there are now some +interesting combinations possible. One might, for example, speak to a +microphone, in the manner described in connection with the +speech-controlled typewriter, and thus make his selections. It would +certainly beat the usual file clerk. + + 6 + +The real heart of the matter of selection, however, goes deeper than a +lag in the adoption of mechanisms by libraries, or a lack of +development of devices for their use. Our ineptitude in getting at +the record is largely caused by the artificiality of systems of +indexing. When data of any sort are placed in storage, they are filed +alphabetically or numerically, and information is found (when it is) +by tracing it down from subclass to subclass. It can be in only one +place, unless duplicates are used; one has to have rules as to which +path will locate it, and the rules are cumbersome. Having found one +item, moreover, one has to emerge from the system and re-enter on a +new path. + +The human mind does not work that way. It operates by association. +With one item in its grasp, it snaps instantly to the next that is +suggested by the association of thoughts, in accordance with some +intricate web of trails carried by the cells of the brain. It has +other characteristics, of course; trails that are not frequently +followed are prone to fade, items are not fully permanent, memory is +transitory. Yet the speed of action, the intricacy of trails, the +detail of mental pictures, is awe-inspiring beyond all else in nature. + +Man cannot hope fully to duplicate this mental process artificially, +but he certainly ought to be able to learn from it. In minor ways he +may even improve, for his records have relative permanency. The first +idea, however, to be drawn from the analogy concerns selection. +Selection by association, rather than by indexing, may yet be +mechanized. One cannot hope thus to equal the speed and flexibility +with which the mind follows an associative trail, but it should be +possible to beat the mind decisively in regard to the permanence and +clarity of the items resurrected from storage. + +Consider a future device for individual use, which is a sort of +mechanized private file and library. It needs a name, and to coin +one at random, ``memex'' will do. A memex is a device in which an +individual stores all his books, records, and communications, and +which is mechanized so that it may be consulted with exceeding speed +and flexibility. It is an enlarged intimate supplement to his memory. + +It consists of a desk, and while it can presumably be operated from a +distance, it is primarily the piece of furniture at which he works. +On the top are slanting translucent screens, on which material can be +projected for convenient reading. There is a keyboard, and sets of +buttons and levers. Otherwise it looks like an ordinary desk. + +In one end is the stored material. The matter of bulk is well taken +care of by improved microfilm. Only a small part of the interior of +the memex is devoted to storage, the rest to mechanism. Yet if the +user inserted 5000 pages of material a day it would take him hundreds +of years to fill the repository, so he can be profligate and enter +material freely. + +Most of the memex contents are purchased on microfilm ready for +insertion. Books of all sorts, pictures, current periodicals, +newspapers, are thus obtained and dropped into place. Business +correspondence takes the same path. And there is provision for direct +entry. On the top of the memex is a transparent platen. On this are +placed longhand notes, photographs, memoranda, all sort of things. +When one is in place, the depression of a lever causes it to be +photographed onto the next blank space in a section of the memex film, +dry photography being employed. + +There is, of course, provision for consultation of the record by the +usual scheme of indexing. If the user wishes to consult a certain +book, he taps its code on the keyboard, and the title page of the book +promptly appears before him, projected onto one of his viewing +positions. Frequently-used codes are mnemonic, so that he seldom +consults his code book; but when he does, a single tap of a key +projects it for his use. Moreover, he has supplemental levers. On +deflecting one of these levers to the right he runs through the book +before him, each page in turn being projected at a speed which just +allows a recognizing glance at each. If he deflects it further to the +right, he steps through the book 10 pages at a time; still further at +100 pages at a time. Deflection to the left gives him the same +control backwards. + +A special button transfers him immediately to the first page of the +index. Any given book of his library can thus be called up and +consulted with far greater facility than if it were taken from a +shelf. As he has several projection positions, he can leave one item +in position while he calls up another. He can add marginal notes and +comments, taking advantage of one possible type of dry photography, +and it could even be arranged so that he can do this by a stylus +scheme, such as is now employed in the telautograph seen in railroad +waiting rooms, just as though he had the physical page before him. + + 7 + +All this is conventional, except for the projection forward of +present-day mechanisms and gadgetry. It affords an immediate step, +however, to associative indexing, the basic idea of which is a +provision whereby any item may be caused at will to select immediately +and automatically another. This is the essential feature of the +memex. The process of tying two items together is the important +thing. + +When the user is building a trail, he names it, inserts the name in +his code book, and taps it out on his keyboard. Before him are the +two items to be joined, projected onto adjacent viewing positions. At +the bottom of each there are a number of blank code spaces, and a +pointer is set to indicate one of these on each item. The user taps a +single key, and the items are permanently joined. In each code space +appears the code word. Out of view, but also in the code space, is +inserted a set of dots for photocell viewing; and on each item these +dots by their positions designate the index number of the other item. + +Thereafter, at any time, when one of these items is in view, the other +can be instantly recalled merely by tapping a button below the +corresponding code space. Moreover, when numerous items have been +thus joined together to form a trail, they can be reviewed in turn, +rapidly or slowly, by deflecting a lever like that used for turning +the pages of a book. It is exactly as though the physical items had +been gathered together to form a new book. It is more than this, for +any item can be joined into numerous trails. + +The owner of the memex, let us say, is interested in the origin and +properties of the bow and arrow. Specifically he is studying why the +short Turkish bow was apparently superior to the English long bow in +the skirmishes of the Crusades. He has dozens of possibly pertinent +books and articles in his memex. First he runs through an +encyclopedia, finds an interesting but sketchy article, leaves it +projected. Next, in a history, he finds another pertinent item, and +ties the two together. Thus he goes, building a trail of many items. +Occasionally he inserts a comment of his own, either linking it into +the main trail or joining it by a side trail to a particular item. +When it becomes evident that the elastic properties of available +materials had a great deal to do with the bow, he branches off on a +side trail which takes him through textbooks on elasticity and tables +of physical constants. He inserts a page of longhand analysis of his +own. Thus he builds a trail of his interest through the maze of +materials available to him. + +And his trails do not fade. Several years later, his talk with a +friend turns to the queer ways in which a people resist innovations, +even of vital interest. He has an example, in the fact that the +outranged Europeans still failed to adopt the Turkish bow. In fact he +has a trail on it. A touch brings up the code book. Tapping a few +keys projects the head of the trail. A lever runs through it at will, +stopping at interesting items, going off on side excursions. It is an +interesting trail, pertinent to the discussion. So he sets a +reproducer in action, photographs the whole trail out, and passes it +to his friend for insertion in his own memex, there to be linked into +the more general trail. + + 8 + +Wholly new forms of encyclopedias will appear, ready-made with a mesh +of associative trails running through them, ready to be dropped into +the memex and there amplified. The lawyer has at his touch the +associated opinions and decisions of his whole experience, and of the +experience of friends and authorities. The patent attorney has on +call the millions of issued patents, with familiar trails to every +point of his client's interest. The physician, puzzled by its +patient's reactions, strikes the trail established in studying an +earlier similar case, and runs rapidly through analogous case +histories, with side references to the classics for the pertinent +anatomy and histology. The chemist, struggling with the synthesis of +an organic compound, has all the chemical literature before him in his +laboratory, with trails following the analogies of compounds, and side +trails to their physical and chemical behavior. + +The historian, with a vast chronological account of a people, +parallels it with a skip trail which stops only at the salient items, +and can follow at any time contemporary trails which lead him all over +civilization at a particular epoch. There is a new profession of +trail blazers, those who find delight in the task of establishing +useful trails through the enormous mass of the common record. The +inheritance from the master becomes, not only his additions to the +world's record, but for his disciples the entire scaffolding by which +they were erected. + +Thus science may implement the ways in which man produces, stores, and +consults the record of the race. It might be striking to outline the +instrumentalities of the future more spectacularly, rather than to +stick closely to the methods and elements now known and undergoing +rapid development, as has been done here. Technical difficulties of +all sorts have been ignored, certainly, but also ignored are means as +yet unknown which may come any day to accelerate technical progress as +violently as did the advent of the thermionic tube. In order that the +picture may not be too commonplace, by reason of sticking to +present-day patterns, it may be well to mention one such possibility, +not to prophesy but merely to suggest, for prophecy based on extension +of the known has substance, while prophecy founded on the unknown is +only a doubly involved guess. + +All our steps in creating or absorbing material of the record proceed +through one of the senses - the tactile when we touch keys, the oral +when we speak or listen, the visual when we read. Is it not possible +that some day the path may be established more directly? + +We know that when the eye sees, all the consequent information is +transmitted to the brain by means of electrical vibrations in the +channel of the optic nerve. This is an exact analogy with the +electrical vibrations which occur in the cable of a television set: +they convey the picture from the photocells which see it to the radio +transmitter from which it is broadcast. We know further that if we +can approach that cable with the proper instruments, we do not need to +touch it; we can pick up those vibrations by electrical induction and +thus discover and reproduce the scene which is being transmitted, just +as a telephone wire may be tapped for its message. + +The impulses which flow in the arm nerves of a typist convey to her +fingers the translated information which reaches her eye or ear, in +order that the fingers may be caused to strike the proper keys. Might +not these currents be intercepted, either in the original form in +which information is conveyed to the brain, or in the marvelously +metamorphosed form in which they then proceed to the hand? + +By bone conduction we already introduce sounds into the nerve channels +of the deaf in order that they may hear. Is it not possible that we +may learn to introduce them without the present cumbersomeness of +first transforming electrical vibrations to mechanical ones, which the +human mechanism promptly transforms back to the electrical form? With +a couple of electrodes on the skull the encephalograph now produces +pen-and-ink traces which bear some relation to the electrical +phenomena going on in the brain itself. True, the record is +unintelligible, except as it points out certain gross misfunctioning +of the cerebral mechanism; but who would now place bounds on where +such a thing may lead? + +In the outside world, all forms of intelligence, whether of sound or +sight, have been reduced to the form of varying currents in an +electric circuit in order that they may be transmitted. Inside the +human frame exactly the same sort of process occurs. Must we always +transform to mechanical movements in order to proceed from one +electrical phenomenon to another? It is a suggestive thought, but it +hardly warrants prediction without losing touch with reality and +immediateness. + +Presumably man's spirit should be elevated if he can better review his +shady past and analyze more completely and objectively his present +problems. He has built a civilization so complex that he needs to +mechanize his record more fully if he is to push his experiment to its +logical conclusion and not merely become bogged down part way there by +overtaxing his limited memory. His excursion may be more enjoyable if +he can reacquire the privilege of forgetting the manifold things he +does not need to have immediately at hand, with some assurance that he +can find them again if they prove important. + +The applications of science have built man a well-supplied house, and +are teaching him to live healthily therein. They have enabled him to +throw masses of people against another with cruel weapons. They may +yet allow him truly to encompass the great record and to grow in the +wisdom of race experience. He may perish in conflict before he learns +to wield that record for his true good. Yet, in the application of +science to the needs and desires of man, it would seem to be a +singularly unfortunate stage at which to terminate the process, or to +lose hope as to the outcome. +
+ + + + \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/main/world1/p80.html b/main/world1/p80.html index 14da7eb..f2a9a8a 100644 --- a/main/world1/p80.html +++ b/main/world1/p80.html @@ -13,7 +13,10 @@

-Some day the piecing together of dissociated knowledge will open up a new reality. A glimpse of truth, flashed out from an accidental chaos.

+Some day the piecing together of dissociated knowledge will open up a new reality. A glimpse of truth, flashed out from an accidental chaos, and certainly, if I live, I must knowingly supply a link in so impossible chain...
+ +Ilinx is the way you can go but isn’t the real way.
+Ilinx is the name you can say but isn’t the real name.

port 80 diff --git a/text_base/books_bg/index3.html b/text_base/books_bg/index3.html index ceec023..422289e 100644 --- a/text_base/books_bg/index3.html +++ b/text_base/books_bg/index3.html @@ -2,6 +2,8 @@ aswemaythink + + -
+
AS WE MAY THINK by VANNEVAR BUSH @@ -867,6 +876,13 @@ science to the needs and desires of man, it would seem to be a singularly unfortunate stage at which to terminate the process, or to lose hope as to the outcome.
- + + \ No newline at end of file